Saturday, June 23, 2012

Moonlight The Only Cloud That Can Rain On Black Caviar?s Parade

Ascot racecourse had a weighty dose of the Friday feeling on the penultimate day of the Royal meeting, with Newmarket trainers enjoying a clean sweep with wins in all six races on the card, the fifth of which prompted emotional scenes with a win for Her Majesty The Queen?s impressive Estimate in the Queen?s Vase, which was promptly followed by the winning owner receiving her prize from an ecstatic looking Prince Philip as the crowd lapped it up.

The Berkshire track?s PR people couldn?t have dared dream of such a perfect outcome, even if it prompted one wag to question whether our monarch might be tempted to unveil a Nicklas Bendtner-esque Paddy Power logo from beneath her coat.

He may have cracked the Euro 2012 defences, but even Paddy couldn?t pull that one off.

Looking ahead to Saturday?s action it?s a whopper of a card, and one which has seen the racecourse hoist the sold signs well in advance in at least some of the enclosures, and there?s absolutely no doubting which horse tops the bill with Australia?s pride and joy Black Caviar preparing to light up the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at 3.45pm, live on BBC1.

Unbeaten in an extraordinary 21 race sequence this amazing mare has already amassed more than ?3.5m in prize money, and according to official ratings has at least eight pounds in hand on all of her 14 rivals (and that?s before you take into account the mares? allowance!).

The obvious question marks are how she has acclimatised on the other side of the world, and how she?ll handle our take on Soft or Good to Soft ground.

Hopefully she?ll win in the style of a champion, but just in case something doesn?t click (her draw isn?t ideal) i?m going to cover the situation with a bit each way on French trainer Freddie Head?s Moonlight Cloud as she srops back in trip to six furlongs.

Although perhaps not on a par with Black Caviar you have to acknowledge Moonlight Cloud is a top level operator in her own right, she has prior experience of Ascot, goes on Soft ground, and hasn?t had to endure anything like the journey of her more celebrated rival.

She looked mightily impressive when winning her prep race at Longchamp, and having strengthened up over the winter she should be well paced to pounce if anything is amiss with the favourite.

Look at it another way, at a quarter the odds we?re getting 6/4 about Moonlight Cloud finishing second or third ? ratings suggest she?ll do exactly that ? while Black Caviar is no bigger than 1/4 to win the race.

Therefore the strategy is enjoy the Black Caviar show and try and pinch some place money into the bargain, with a cosy 6/1 safety net if something goes awry for the Aussie mare.

A little earlier on the card the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes (3.05pm) has the makings of a cracker, with Sea Moon taking on Aiken, Dunaden, Red Cadeaux and Memphis Tennessee for the ?113,420 winner?s purse.

After they banged in a hat-trick on Friday afternoon (Newfangled, Fallen For You, Gatewood) it?s not hard to think John Gosden and William Buick may have cause to believe they can topple top-rated Sea Moon, with their sharply progressive Selkirk colt Aiken thriving on his racing.

Whereas Sea Moon looked rusty when having to pull out all the stops to see off inferior horses on his seasonal reappearance in listed company at Goodwood four weeks ago, Aiken is a mud-loving course and distance winner who?s in the form of his life, and hails from a stable practically fizzing with achievement and health.

Aiken has something to find on ratings, but has now won six on the bounce including three this season, the latest a Chantilly Group 2 just 20 days ago.

He?s improving all the time, and at 4/1 with any of Bet Victor, Ladbrokes or Paddy Power might well be able to add this big prize to his growing cv.

There?s a proper old-fashioned cavalry charge in store at 4.25pm as this year?s renewal of the Wokingham rolls around, and as i?ve alluded to in recent days it?s still unclear whether it?s best to be drawn high or low.

With that in mind I?m going for a bit of the best of both worlds, with Robert Cowell?s bang in form Lui Rei (drawn 28) and David Barron?s Colonel Mak (drawn 5) carrying my each way cash at big prices.

Lui Rei loves Soft going and has won two of his four races this season since being gelded over the winter, and pleasingly his in-form trainer opts for a decent apprentice who has also been among the winners to take seven pounds off his back.

He looks a much better horse this season, and has what it takes to get involved at 20/1 each way with any of Bet Victor, Boylesports or Paddy Power, all of whom are offering five places each way.

On the other side of the track sprint specialist David Barron saddles Colonel Mak, a five year old gelding by Makbul who has really found his form in recent weeks, and also has a good apprentice up top he remove some of his weight burden.

He won at Doncaster at the start of April, and then finished third in a well contested race at Newmarket won by the re-opppsing Maarek, with Alben Star a length and a quarter back in fifth.

Another good run could well be on the way from this tough horse who won the Ayr Silver Cup two years ago, and went on to finish fourth on Soft ground in the Ayr Gold Cup last September.

Colonel Mak is also a 20/1 shot, with Skybet and Stan James the places to head for the extra place.

Good luck!

Saturday?s best bets at Royal Ascot:

3.05 ? Hardwicke Stakes ? 1 Aiken (win) @ 4/1 (Bet Victor, Ladbrokes or Paddy Power)

3.45 ? Diamond Jubilee Stakes -12 Moonlight Cloud (each way) @ 6/1 (Bet365, Boylesports or Ladbrokes)

4.25 ? Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) ? 6 Colonel Mak (each way) @ 20/1 (Skybet or Stan James)

4.25 ? Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) ? 15 Lui Rei (each way) @ 20/1 (Bet Victor, Boylesports or Paddy Power)

Tags: 23rd june, best bets, royal ascot tips, saturday

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